Is population growth a threat to agriculture? Perceptions in rural Kenya

Perceptions of population growth and its potential threats to water security could prompt sustainability actions such as infrastructural improvements, use of water-saving technologies, and limits on water access. However, little is known about perceptions of population dynamics, including in rural areas of low-income countries. We surveyed around 500 smallholding farmers in a largely rain-fed region of Central Kenya, finding that virtually all respondents (96%) perceive population growth in their area, and the majority (57%) view localized population growth as a threat to their agricultural livelihoods. Although respondents in faster-growing areas were more likely to perceive population growth, localized demographic conditions were not associated with the likelihood of viewing population growth as a threat to agriculture. Respondents with high population threat perceptions commonly expressed concerns about land – not water – shortages, suggesting that population threat perceptions may not prompt water-conscious climate resilience in the way we had hypothesized. This study represents a useful step toward better understanding how population perceptions could shape population-responsive environmental policy in a growing region.